Ongoing Research
Working Papers (under review or revision)
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Paid Parental Leaves and Workers’ Bargaining Response
revise and resubmit Latest Version Here
Brief Abstract
When statutory work and family entitlements are deemed insufficient, how do workers respond and compensate? Some evidence suggests that unionization may secure higher benefit entitlements than what is statutorily guaranteed. However, the universality of this “success story” is far from established, particularly in contexts where unions play a less salient role. Bridging this gap, I construct a novel dataset of all private sector collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines from 2016-2021 to descriptively estimate (i) the prevalence of paid parental leaves (PPLs) in CBAs; (ii) whether having female leaders is associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion; and (iii) whether wage increase provisions “crowd-out” PPLs. I further assess the effect of a 2019 maternity leave reform, which increased leave entitlements from 8 to 15 weeks, on the inclusion of PPLs in CBAs using two identification strategies - a pre-post comparison of multi-plant ultimate parent entities (UPEs) and a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design. Results suggest that around 65 percent of CBAs contain reinforcing provisions that merely restate statutory leave entitlements, while only 5 percent contain augmenting provisions that secure more leaves. Second, I find that neither wage increases nor the 2019 reform crowds out PPL provisions. On the contrary, I find a crowding-in pattern - wage increase provisions at the extensive and intensive margins are associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion. Unpacking potential mechanisms, semi-structured interviews with union leaders and negotiators lend support to a bounded augmentation hypothesis, such that where compliance and enforcement of statutory entitlements are perceived as weak, redundancy is as much of an objective as augmentation is in collective bargaining.2. Labour Market Insecurity and Parental Coresidence in the UK: Heterogeneities by Parental Class and Age (with Ann Berrington)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
Amidst young adults’ increasing labour market insecurity and rates of parental coresidence, this article examines how unemployment and under-explored forms of nonstandard employment – underemployment and temporary and agency work – are associated with inter-generational coresidence in the United Kingdom. Refining the feathered nest/gilded cage hypothesis to incorporate forms of nonstandard employment, we analyse how parental social class moderates this relationship across the transition to adulthood phase, driven by both protective and propellant motives. We estimate logistic regression models using the 2021-24 waves of the UK Labour Force Survey, which allow for a precise identification of time-related underemployment and agency working. Results suggest that states of labour underutilization (underemployment) and impermanence (temporary and agency work), as well as unemployment, are all associated with higher probabilities of parental coresidence relative to standard employment. This relationship is in part mediated by earnings disparities. Further, socio-economic background matters - the positive insecurity-coresidence association is most pronounced among young adults from service-class backgrounds. This is consistent with a refined feathered nest/gilded cage hypothesis whereby higher parental resources facilitate coresidence at earlier phases of adulthood transitions, especially for young adults facing labour market insecurities, but this slightly tapers off with age.3. Employment Instability and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal (with M. Kreyenfeld)
submitted
Brief Abstract
In prior macro-level analyses of fertility patterns, employment instability is commonly operationalized using unemployment rates. However, labor markets in developing countries are characterized by low unemployment and high vulnerable employment in precarious and informal positions. Recognizing these different manifestations of employment instability, this paper reappraises their associations with fertility dynamics in three ways. First, we utilize alternative measures of instability apart from unemployment, such as vulnerable and solo self-employment. Second, we extend the geographic scope of existing work to a global scale and use a panel data of countries from across all regional groups and income classifications between 1992 and 2022. Finally, we adopt both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques that account for the inherent persistence of period fertility rates. Results suggest that (i) lagged unemployment rates have a robustly negative association with fertility, lending support to existing findings; (ii) the magnitude of this association seems stronger for lower-income countries; and (iii) vulnerable and self-employment rates are also negatively associated with fertility in the static model specification. As employment instability is associated with fertility dynamics on a global scale, further demographic research on instability and fertility should use contextually fitting measures.4. Old Age Caregiving and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy (with M. Kreyenfeld, D. Vignoli, and R. Guetto)
submitted
Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Labour Market Entry, Asset Accumulation, and Fertility (with A. Berrington)
2. Welfare Reform and the Crowding-In of Parental Coresidential Support (with J. Einhoff and A. Berrington)
Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1. Concentration and Union Activity in Local Labor Markets: Estimates and Implications from the Philippines (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. Chains that Bind: On Restrictive Covenants and the Preventive Conditions for Occupational Mobility (with B. Radoc)
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in job contracts serve as de facto chains restricting workers’ current and future mobility by preventing them from either prematurely exiting the firm or working for its competitor (or both) within a limited period post-employment. This paper analyzes how their inclusion in employment contracts affects the perceived conditions for subsequent occupational mobility. Employing a forced-choice conjoint experiment on labor market entrants in the Philippines, we construct hypothetical jobseeker profiles with randomly assigned noncompete, training repayment, and nonsolicitation clauses and subsequently ask which jobseeker is more likely to apply to each of the four mobility pathways---vertical-within, lateral-within, vertical-across, and lateral-across job postings. Results suggest that: (i) noncompete clauses prevent the conditions for within-industry occupational mobility and facilitate expected applications in across-industry postings; (ii) training repayment and nonsolicitation clauses have targeted consequences depending on their scope; and (iii) these preventive conditions hold regardless of whether the restrictive covenants are worded narrowly or broadly and whether they are enforced loosely or strictly. Broadly, our results highlight how firms' imposition of restrictive covenants in employment contracts _per se_ has binding repercussions on the perceived conditions for occupational mobility.2. Outside Options and Female Labor Force Participation (with S. Menon and A. Tagat)