Research
Publications in Peer-Reviewed Journals
Extreme Lockdowns and the Gendered Informalization of Employment
Work, Employment and Society,, 2024
Second Births in Germany: The Role of Gender, Social Class, and Economic Uncertainty
with Michaela Kreyenfeld, Dirk Konietzka, and Philippe Lambert
European Journal of Population, 2023
Informal employment and irregular migration status: A double whammy for migrant workers in Thailand
with Geoffrey Ducanes and Anna Engblom
Asian and Pacific Migration Journal, 2023
COVID-19 Lockdowns and Female Employment in the Philippines
with Geoffrey Ducanes
Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 2022
On the Income Advantage in Course Choices and Admissions: Evidence from the University of the Philippines
with Sarah Daway-Ducanes and Elena Pernia
International Journal of Educational Development, 2022
Book Chapter
Are Militarized Lockdowns the Great Equalizer? Evidence from the Philippines
with Fatemeh Halabisaz, Leonides Frago, and Ryan Martinez
The First 100 Days of Covid-19: Law and Political Economy of the Global Policy Response
Working Papers
1. Initial Labor Market Conditions and Subsequent Fertility Behavior
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
The conditions upon which people enter the labor market have been demonstrated to affect a variety of later life outcomes such as family formation, employment, and wealth accumulation. After the 2008-09 Global Financial Crisis, a thick strand of the literature has shown that initial employment uncertainty leads to postponed childbearing and higher ultimate childlessness. Yet it is not only individual conditions that matter, broader macroeconomic conditions upon entry also matter. Indeed, the “scarring” literature has likewise demonstrated how recessions negatively affect later life outcomes of their cohorts compared to non-recession entrants. Using detailed employment and birth histories of labor market entrants in Germany, this paper examines the effects of initial conditions, operationalized using fixed-term employment and recession year entry, on subsequent fertility behavior. To partly address endogenous selection bias, we employ a two-step identification strategy combining a non-parametric optimal full matching step and a parametric event history modeling step using the matched data. Results suggest that entering the labor market with a fixed-term contract has persistent negative effects on first births up to a decade after entry and the results are pronounced only for females, whereas entering during a recession has persistent negative effects only for males.2. Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany (with Michaela Kreyenfeld, Enrique Alonso Perez, Paul Gellert, Jan Paul Heisig, and Julie O’Sullivan)
under review
Brief Abstract
In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors that influence childbearing decisions is critical. We employ a factorial survey experiment to investigate how future narratives of old age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple described in a vignette. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) (n=1,750) were randomly assigned five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical and future-oriented narrative with varying levels of old-age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties. After each vignette, respondents rated their expectations about the couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point Likert scale. Results show that high old age caregiving responsibilities and high employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 points respectively, compared to when both factors are absent. Taking respondent characteristics into account, further analyses reveal that while female respondents evaluate the importance of having low or no old age caregiving responsibilities than males do, neither objective nor subjective measures of respondents’ employment markers moderated the effect of future employment uncertainties. We discuss the implications of our results in highlighting the conditions that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing and, more broadly, how both future-oriented old-age caregiving duties and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation.Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Class, Precarity, and Parental Coresidence in the UK (with A. Berrington)
2. Employment Uncertainty and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal
3. Merry Now, Marry Later? Initial Employment Conditions and Marital Intentions (with M. Vital)
Brief Abstract
Young adults typically navigate initial transitions into the labor market along with family formation intentions and decisions. A thick strand of literature, mostly based on Western contexts, demonstrates how employment instability is associated with marital behavior (intentions and actual transitions). The Philippines, as the only country in the world without any legal provision for divorce, is an interesting case in analyzing both the institution of and the preferences for marriage. Following the Oppenheimerian hypothesis that employment stability partly explains (earlier) marriage timing, especially among career-oriented young adults, we analyze: what is the relationship between precarious initial conditions and marital intentions among this highly educated subgroup? We estimate logistic regression models using data from a nationally representative college graduate tracer survey in the Philippines. Our analysis highlights three findings. (1) An overwhelming majority intend to get married (>90\%), regardless of employment status. (2) Precarious labor market states are not associated with marital intentions except for economically inactive females. (3) Precarity matters for the expressed timing of marriage---compared to their stably employed counterparts, marriage-oriented young adults on fixed-term contracts, unemployment, or economic inactivity express a slightly later ideal period to marry. These descriptive findings speak to the idea that highly educated young adults in ``merry'' employment conditions intend to marry sooner rather than later.Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Parental Leave Policies and Workers’ Bargaining Response
ongoing
Brief Abstract
When statutory work and family entitlements are deemed insufficient, how do workers respond and compensate? Looking at some advanced economies points us to an idea---unionization and collective bargaining (CB) are channels to attain better conditions and higher benefit entitlements than what is legally guaranteed. Whether this ``success story'' applies in other contexts where unions play a less salient role and parental leave laws are perceived as less strongly enforced, as is the case in many developing countries, has not been explored. To address this, we construct a novel dataset of all private sector collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines from 2016-2021 to: (1) descriptively show the prevalence of paid parental leaves (PPLs) in CBAs and (2) analyze the causal effect of a 2019 maternity leave reform, which increased benefit entitlement from 8 to 15 weeks, on the inclusion of PPLs in CBAs using two quasi-experimental designs. Results show that around 65\% of CBAs contain reinforcing provisions that merely restate statutory leave entitlements, while only 5\% contain augmenting provisions that secure more leaves. Meanwhile, we do not find evidence that the 2019 reform crowded out PPL provisions in CBAs. Unpacking potential mechanisms, semi-structured interviews with union leaders lend support to the idea that where compliance and enforcement of family policy laws are perceived as weak, redundancy is as much of an objective as augmentation is in collective bargaining.2. The Incomplete Leap: On the Transition from Union Formation to the First Collective Agreement (with E. Suguitan)
Brief Abstract
In decentralized systems where unionization and bargaining occur at the establishment level, what explains the (speedy) transition from union formation to the first collective agreement? While prior evidence in some developed countries (e.g. United States) estimates this transition to be a little over a year, little to no evidence exists in other contexts where unions play a less central role. Extending prior literature, we analyze the Philippines where national unionization and collective bargaining coverage rates are relatively low. Using methods from survival analysis on novel register data, we descriptively demonstrate that: (1) median union membership density is low at 40\%; (2) only 20\% of all new union registrations have successfully registered a contract; and (3) unions with higher densities, that are independent, and in the manufacturing sector experience elevated transition rates to a collective agreement.3. Local Labor Market Concentration and Workers’ Representation (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. The Chains that Bind: Employment and Life Course Consequences of Restrictive Covenants in Job Contracts (with B. Radoc)
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in job contracts serve as de facto chains restricting workers’ current and future mobility by preventing them from either prematurely exiting the firm or working for its competitor (or both) within a limited period post-employment. A growing strand of the literature has analyzed its effects on individual and aggregate wages and employment as well as firm-level innovation and profitability. In this project, we operationalize RCs as non-compete, non-solicitation, training repayment, and monitoring and enforcement clauses embedded in hypothetical job contracts. Using a conjoint design, we test the effects of these RCs on an array of subsequent outcomes including job search, satisfaction, and family formation intentions. Findings using preliminary data from highly educated labor market entrants in the Philippines lend evidence to the adverse effects of certain types of RCs. While non-competes substantially restrict within-industry job search, all types of RCs negatively affect job satisfaction, marital intentions, and fertility intentions. Our results echo the role of labor and antitrust regulations in abating the harms of excessive and restrictive term-setting in employer-employee contracts, consequently breaking the chains that bind.2. Outside Options and Female Labor Force Participation (with S. Menon)