Ongoing Research
Working Papers
1. Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany (with Michaela Kreyenfeld, Enrique Alonso Perez, Paul Gellert, Jan Paul Heisig, and Julie O’Sullivan)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors that influence childbearing decisions is critical. We employ a factorial survey experiment to investigate how future narratives of old age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple described in a vignette. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) (n=1,750) were randomly assigned five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical and future-oriented narrative with varying levels of old-age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties. After each vignette, respondents rated their expectations about the couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point Likert scale. Results show that high old age caregiving responsibilities and high employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 points respectively, compared to when both factors are absent. Taking respondent characteristics into account, further analyses reveal that while female respondents evaluate the importance of having low or no old age caregiving responsibilities than males do, neither objective nor subjective measures of respondents’ employment markers moderated the effect of future employment uncertainties. We discuss the implications of our results in highlighting the conditions that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing and, more broadly, how both future-oriented old-age caregiving duties and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation.2. Precarity, Class, and Parental Coresidence: Evidence Amidst the UK Cost-of-Living Crisis (with Ann Berrington)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
The cost-of-living crisis in the UK is likely to have amplified the increasing rates of parental coresidence among young adults. Amidst this period, we examine how underexplored forms of employment precarity (e.g., underemployment and temporary and agency work) are associated with parental coresidence. Refining the feathered nest/gilded cage hypotheses to incorporate employment precarity, we further analyze how parental social class moderates this relationship across the transition to adulthood phase, driven by both protective and propellant motives of parents. Estimating logistic regression models using the 2021-23 waves of the UK Labour Force Survey, we demonstrate the association between precarity and coresidence, and probe heterogeneities by sex, age, and parental social class. Three results are worth noting. First, apart from unemployment, states of labor underutilization (underemployment) and impermanence (temporary and agency work) are associated with a higher probability of parental coresidence relative to stable employment. Second, parental class matters—the positive precarity-coresidence association is most pronounced among service-class parents. Finally, our results support a refined feathered nest/gilded cage hypothesis whereby (higher) parental resources facilitate coresidence at earlier phases of adulthood transitions, especially for unemployed and precariously employed adult children, but this moderating role tapers off with age.3. Merry Now, Marry Later? Initial Employment Conditions and Marital Intentions (with M. Vital)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
Young adults typically navigate initial transitions into the labor market along with family formation intentions and decisions. A thick strand of literature, mostly based on Western contexts, demonstrates how employment instability is associated with marital behavior (intentions and actual transitions). The Philippines, as the only country in the world without any legal provision for divorce, is an interesting case in analyzing both the institution of and the preferences for marriage. Following the Oppenheimerian hypothesis that employment stability partly explains (earlier) marriage timing, especially among career-oriented young adults, we analyze the relationship between precarious initial conditions and marital intentions among this highly educated subgroup. We estimate logistic regression models using data from a nationally representative college graduate tracer survey in the Philippines. Our analysis highlights three findings. First, an overwhelming majority intend to get married ($>90\%$), regardless of employment status. Second, precarious labor market states are not associated with marital intentions except for economically inactive females. Finally, precarity matters for the expressed timing of marriage---compared to their stably employed counterparts, marriage-oriented young adults on fixed-term contracts, unemployment, or economic inactivity express a slightly later ideal period to marry. These descriptive findings speak to the idea that highly educated young adults in "merry" employment conditions intend to marry sooner rather than later.4. Employment Uncertainty and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal (with M. Kreyenfeld)
reject and resubmit
Brief Abstract
In prior macro-level analyses of fertility patterns, (economic) uncertainty is commonly operationalized using unemployment rates. However, labor markets in developing countries are characterized by low unemployment and high vulnerable employment, partly due to the "survivalist" motive. Recognizing the different manifestations of uncertainty across countries, this paper reappraises its associations with fertility in three ways. First, we operationalize uncertainty beyond unemployment rates, incorporating alternative measures such as vulnerable and solo self-employment rates that better capture labor market dynamics in developing countries. Second, we extend the geographic scope of existing work to a global scale---including countries from across all regional groups and income classifications. Finally, we adopt both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques that account for the inherent persistence of period fertility rates. Results suggest that: (i) lagged unemployment rates have a robustly negative association with fertility; (ii) the magnitude of this association seems stronger for lower-income countries; and (iii) vulnerable and self-employment rates are also negatively associated with fertility but only in the static model specification. Broadly, these findings suggest that beyond unemployment, precarious employment conditions are associated with fertility dynamics in lower-income economies and thus, further demographic research on the topic of "uncertainty" should use contextually fitting measures.Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Labour Market Entry, Asset Accumulation, and Fertility (with A. Berrington)
2. Future Uncertainty and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy (with M. Kreyenfeld, D. Vignoli, and R. Guetto)
3. Welfare Reform and the Unemployment-Parental Coresidence Nexus (with J. Einhoff and A. Berrington)
Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Parental Leave Policies and Workers’ Bargaining Response
ongoing
Brief Abstract
When statutory work and family entitlements are deemed insufficient, how do workers respond and compensate? Some evidence suggests that unionization may secure higher benefit entitlements than what is statutorily guaranteed. However, the universality of this “success story” is far from established, particularly in contexts where unions play a less salient role. Bridging this gap, we construct a novel dataset of all private sector collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines from 2016-2021 to: descriptively estimate (i) the prevalence of paid parental leaves (PPLs) in CBAs; (ii) whether having female leaders is associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion; and (iii) whether wage increase provisions “crowd-out” PPLs. We further estimate the effect of a 2019 maternity leave reform, which increased leave entitlements from 8 to 15 weeks, on the inclusion of PPLs in CBAs using two identification strategies - a pre-post comparison of multi-plant ultimate parent entities (UPEs) and a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design. Results suggest that around 65% of CBAs contain reinforcing provisions that merely restate statutory leave entitlements, while only 5% contain augmenting provisions that secure more leaves. Second, we find that neither wage increases nor the 2019 reform crowds out PPL provisions. On the contrary, we find a crowding-in pattern - wage increase provisions at the extensive and intensive margin are associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion. Unpacking potential mechanisms, semi-structured interviews with union leaders and negotiators lend support to a _bounded augmentation hypothesis_ such that where compliance and enforcement of statutory entitlements are perceived as weak, redundancy is as much of an objective as augmentation is in collective bargaining.2. Concentration and Union Activity in Local Labor Markets: Estimates and Implications from the Philippines (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. Chains that Bind: On Restrictive Covenants and the Preventive Conditions for Occupational Mobility (with B. Radoc)
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in job contracts serve as de facto chains restricting workers’ current and future mobility by preventing them from either prematurely exiting the firm or working for its competitor (or both) within a limited period post-employment. This paper analyzes how their inclusion in employment contracts affects the perceived conditions for subsequent occupational mobility. Employing a forced-choice conjoint experiment on labor market entrants in the Philippines, we construct hypothetical jobseeker profiles with randomly assigned noncompete, training repayment, and nonsolicitation clauses and subsequently ask which jobseeker is more likely to apply to each of the four mobility pathways---vertical-within, lateral-within, vertical-across, and lateral-across job postings. Results suggest that: (i) noncompete clauses prevent the conditions for within-industry occupational mobility and facilitate expected applications in across-industry postings; (ii) training repayment and nonsolicitation clauses have targeted consequences depending on their scope; and (iii) these preventive conditions hold regardless of whether the restrictive covenants are worded narrowly or broadly and whether they are enforced loosely or strictly. Broadly, our results highlight how firms' imposition of restrictive covenants in employment contracts _per se_ has binding repercussions on the perceived conditions for occupational mobility.2. Outside Options and Female Labor Force Participation (with S. Menon and A. Tagat)