Ongoing Research
Working Papers (under review or revision)
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Paid Parental Leaves and Workers’ Bargaining Response
revised and resubmitted Latest Version Here
Brief Abstract
When statutory work–family entitlements are deemed insufficient, workers often rely on collective bargaining to secure better terms. However, the extent to which unions can deliver higher-than-statutory benefits remains underexplored, especially in developing countries with decentralized bargaining systems and low union salience. Bridging this gap and drawing on a novel dataset covering all private-sector collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines (2016–2021), this article examines the dynamics and embedding of paid parental leave (PPL) provisions, focusing on three plausible drivers: leaders’ gender, competing wage provisions, and changing policy-related opportunity structures. I specifically test whether female leadership and wage increase provisions “crowd in” PPLs, and assess how the 2019 maternity leave reform, which expanded statutory maternity leave entitlements from 8 to 15 weeks, affected PPL inclusion using two identification strategies: a pre–post comparison of multi-plant ultimate parent entities (UPEs) and a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design. Results suggest that 56% of CBAs contain reinforcing provisions that merely restate statutory entitlements, while only 5% include augmenting provisions that expand them. Neither wage increases nor the 2019 reform crowd out PPLs. Instead, wage increase provisions, both at the extensive and intensive margin, are associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion. Semi-structured interviews with union leaders and negotiators support a bounded augmentation hypothesis such that in contexts where compliance and enforcement of statutory rights are perceived as weak, redundancy is as much of an objective as augmentation is in collective bargaining.2. School-to-Work Transitions, Homeownership, and Asset Accumulation: The Propelling Role of Parental Resources (with A. Berrington)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
Millennials experience marked intra-cohort inequalities in asset ownership and are less likely than earlier cohorts at the same age to own homes or hold financial assets. Using a life course cube approach that integrates the cumulative and intergenerational aspects of adulthood transitions, this article examines the relationship between school-to-work (STW) patterns and subsequent asset accumulation in the UK. Using prospective longitudinal data from Next Steps, a study of the 1989-90 birth cohort in the UK, we first employ sequence and cluster analysis to develop a typology of STW transitions. Logistic regression models then estimate the relationship between these clusters and two asset indicators at age 32: homeownership and the value of savings/investments. Our findings indicate that: (i) individuals with high-churn or intermittent employment spells, or prolonged periods of unemployment or inactivity, are less likely to have ever owned a home or held financial assets; (ii) later entrants to the labour market are more likely to possess higher-value savings and investments; and (iii) parental resources—measured by social class and housing tenure in early adolescence—partly moderates the labor market entry-asset nexus. Overall, these results highlight an employment stability premium upon labor market entry, while high parental socio-economic resources further propel asset accumulation of young adults with already “successful” STW transitions.3. Employment Instability and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal (with M. Kreyenfeld)
under review
Brief Abstract
In prior macro-level analyses of fertility patterns in high-income countries, employment instability is commonly operationalized using unemployment rates. Among developing countries, however, unemployment is demonstrably low and stable, while vulnerable and self-employment are high. Using a panel dataset of countries and territories between 1992 and 2022, this article reappraises the relationship between various measures of employment instability and fertility. Adopting both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques that account for the statistical persistence of period fertility rates, three results are worth noting. First, unemployment is negatively associated with fertility globally; (ii) both female and male unemployment rates are negatively associated with fertility; and (iii) vulnerable and self-employment rates are negatively associated with fertility among low- and middle-income countries in the static model specification. As employment instability is associated with fertility dynamics on a global scale, further country-level demographic research on instability and fertility should use contextually fitting measures.4. Old Age Caregiving and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy (with M. Kreyenfeld, D. Vignoli, and R. Guetto)
submitted
Brief Abstract
This paper examines the relationship between old-age caregiving responsibilities and fertility in Germany and Italy, two of the most rapidly ageing countries in Europe. We test two competing hypotheses regarding intergenerational dependencies. On the one hand, we argue that confronting the care needs of ageing parents heightens awareness of intergenerational solidarity, thereby increasing the inclination to have children. Conversely, the “care strain” from sandwiched caregiving would override long-term considerations and reduce the desire to have children. The data come from a factorial survey experiment involving respondents aged 20-39 (n = 2,370) in Italy and Germany. Results indicate that hypothetical caregiving responsibilities toward elderly parents significantly reduce ascribed fertility intentions in both countries. Notably, the magnitude of having future care responsibilities is comparable to that of employment uncertainty. This article highlights that, beyond future economic uncertainties, the anticipation of caregiving duties presents a distinct barrier to family formation in ageing societies.Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Ethnic and Employment Differences in Intergenerational Coresidence (with A. Berrington)
Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1. Welfare Reforms and the Crowding-In of Parental Coresidence: Evidence from Britain’s Universal Credit Program (with J. Einhoff and A. Berrington)
ongoing
Brief Abstract
Does intergenerational coresidence ``crowd in'' when public welfare retrenches? We examine the case of the Universal Credit (UC) reform in Great Britain, which replaced six legacy welfare programs with a single system that modified benefit income and intensified job search requirements — changes that disproportionately affected single young adults. Leveraging the exogenous variation from the staggered roll-out of the program across local authorities and demographic groups, we estimate the effect of the reform on parental coresidence among young adults aged 18-34 using longitudinal data from Understanding Society. We find that the UC reform significantly increased the likelihood of parental coresidence by 4.8pp among the program-eligible, and that this effect is driven by single individuals without a coresident child. Heterogeneity analyses likewise indicate that this effect is stratified by labor market risk, being most pronounced among young adults at the highest risk of unemployment. These findings underscore the substitutive crowding-in response of intergenerational exchange amid labor market instability and changing welfare regimes.2. Concentration and Union Activity in Local Labor Markets: Estimates and Implications from the Philippines (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. The Chains that Bind? Restrictive Covenants and the Preventive Conditions for Occupational Mobility (with B. Radoc)
finalizing for submission
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in employment contracts serve as de facto chains that statutorily constrain workers’ present and future mobility by preventing them from either leaving their employer prematurely or joining a competitor within a specified period. Beyond their legal function, RCs are instruments that legitimize and maintain economic closures imposed unto and rarely contested by workers. This paper examines how such covenants shape the perceived conditions for subsequent occupational mobility. Using a forced-choice conjoint survey experiment among highly educated labor market entrants in the Philippines, we construct hypothetical jobseeker profiles containing randomly assigned noncompete, training repayment, and non-solicitation clauses. Respondents then assess which profiles are more likely to apply to one of four predefined occupational mobility pathways: vertical-within, lateral-within, vertical-across, and lateral-across job postings. Our results suggest that: (i) noncompete clauses deter within-industry occupational mobility while encouraging across-industry mobility; (ii) training repayment and non-solicitation clauses exert targeted effects depending on their scope conditions; and (iii) these negative effects hold regardless of whether RCs are narrowly or broadly worded and whether enforcement is weak or stringent. Broadly, these results highlight how the imposition of restrictive covenants on employment contracts, _per se_, has binding repercussions on the enabling conditions for occupational mobility.2. Norm-Amenity Tradeoff in Female Labor Force Participation in India (with S. Menon and A. Tagat)