Ongoing Research
Working Papers
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Paid Parental Leaves and Workers’ Bargaining Response
submitted Latest Version Here
Brief Abstract
When statutory entitlements are deemed insufficient, how do workers respond? Some evidence suggests that collective bargaining may secure more entitlements than is legally guaranteed. However, this is less established in contexts where unions are less influential and more fragmented. This article analyzes the embedding and dynamics of paid parental leaves (PPLs) in collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines using a novel dataset of all contracts from 2016 to 2021. I estimate the prevalence of PPLs, whether female leadership is associated with the inclusion of PPLs, and whether wage increases crowd out PPLs. To analyze how changing opportunity structures affect bargaining outcomes, I estimate the effect of a 2019 maternity leave reform using two identification strategies – a counterfactual analysis of multi-plant ultimate parent entities (UPEs) and a regression discontinuity in time (RDiT) design. Results show that 65% of CBAs merely restate statutory leave entitlements, while only 5% secure additional benefits. Neither wage increases nor the 2019 reform crowds out PPL provisions; instead, the former is associated with a higher probability of PPL inclusion. Semi-structured interviews with union leaders support a _bounded augmentation hypothesis_: when compliance and enforcement are perceived as weak, redundancy and augmentation are dual collective bargaining aims.2. Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany (with Michaela Kreyenfeld, Enrique Alonso Perez, Paul Gellert, Jan Paul Heisig, and Julie O’Sullivan)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors influencing childbearing decisions is of interest. We employ a factorial survey experiment to investigate how scenarios of future employment uncertainties and caregiving responsibilities towards aging parents shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) (n=1,750) were randomly assigned to five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical couple with varying levels of caregiving responsibilities towards an aging parent and employment uncertainties. Respondents subsequently rated their expectations about the couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point scale. Results show that high caregiving responsibilities and dual employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 points, respectively, compared to when these are absent. The negative effect of high caregiving responsibilities is more pronounced among females, while respondents’ own caregiving and employment experiences do not moderate the treatment effects. These results demonstrate how both future-oriented caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation and highlight the scenarios that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing.3. Precarity, Class, and Parental Coresidence: Evidence Amidst the UK Cost-of-Living Crisis (with Ann Berrington)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
The cost-of-living crisis in the UK is likely to have amplified the increasing rates of parental coresidence among young adults. Amidst this period, we examine how underexplored forms of employment precarity (e.g., underemployment and temporary and agency work) are associated with parental coresidence. Refining the feathered nest/gilded cage hypotheses to incorporate employment precarity, we further analyze how parental social class moderates this relationship across the transition to adulthood phase, driven by both protective and propellant motives of parents. Estimating logistic regression models using the 2021-23 waves of the UK Labour Force Survey, we demonstrate the association between precarity and coresidence, and probe heterogeneities by sex, age, and parental social class. Three results are worth noting. First, apart from unemployment, states of labor underutilization (underemployment) and impermanence (temporary and agency work) are associated with a higher probability of parental coresidence relative to stable employment. Second, parental class matters—the positive precarity-coresidence association is most pronounced among service-class parents. Finally, our results support a refined feathered nest/gilded cage hypothesis whereby (higher) parental resources facilitate coresidence at earlier phases of adulthood transitions, especially for unemployed and precariously employed adult children, but this moderating role tapers off with age.4. Merry Now, Marry Later? Initial Employment Conditions and Marital Intentions (with M. Vital)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
Young adults typically navigate initial transitions into the labor market along with family formation intentions and decisions. A thick strand of literature, mostly based on Western contexts, demonstrates how employment instability is associated with marital behavior (intentions and actual transitions). The Philippines, as the only country in the world without any legal provision for divorce, is an interesting case in analyzing both the institution of and the preferences for marriage. Following the Oppenheimerian hypothesis that employment stability partly explains (earlier) marriage timing, especially among career-oriented young adults, we analyze the relationship between precarious initial conditions and marital intentions among this highly educated subgroup. We estimate logistic regression models using data from a nationally representative college graduate tracer survey in the Philippines. Our analysis highlights three findings. First, an overwhelming majority intend to get married ($>90\%$), regardless of employment status. Second, precarious labor market states are not associated with marital intentions except for economically inactive females. Finally, precarity matters for the expressed timing of marriage---compared to their stably employed counterparts, marriage-oriented young adults on fixed-term contracts, unemployment, or economic inactivity express a slightly later ideal period to marry. These descriptive findings speak to the idea that highly educated young adults in "merry" employment conditions intend to marry sooner rather than later.5. Employment Instability and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal (with M. Kreyenfeld)
reject and resubmit
Brief Abstract
In prior macro-level analyses of fertility patterns, employment instability is commonly operationalized using unemployment rates. However, labor markets in developing countries are characterized by low unemployment and high vulnerable employment in precarious and informal positions. Recognizing these different manifestations of employment instability, this paper reappraises their associations with fertility dynamics in three ways. First, we utilize alternative measures of instability apart from unemployment, such as vulnerable and solo self-employment. Second, we extend the geographic scope of existing work to a global scale and use a panel data of countries from across all regional groups and income classifications between 1992 and 2022. Finally, we adopt both static and dynamic panel estimation techniques that account for the inherent persistence of period fertility rates. Results suggest that (i) lagged unemployment rates have a robustly negative association with fertility, lending support to existing findings; (ii) the magnitude of this association seems stronger for lower-income countries; and (iii) vulnerable and self-employment rates are also negatively associated with fertility in the static model specification. As employment instability is associated with fertility dynamics on a global scale, further demographic research on instability and fertility should use contextually fitting measures.Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Labour Market Entry, Asset Accumulation, and Fertility (with A. Berrington)
2. Old Age Caregiving and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy (with M. Kreyenfeld, D. Vignoli, and R. Guetto)
3. Welfare Reform and the Crowding-In of Parental Coresidential Support (with J. Einhoff and A. Berrington)
Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1. Concentration and Union Activity in Local Labor Markets: Estimates and Implications from the Philippines (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. Chains that Bind: On Restrictive Covenants and the Preventive Conditions for Occupational Mobility (with B. Radoc)
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in job contracts serve as de facto chains restricting workers’ current and future mobility by preventing them from either prematurely exiting the firm or working for its competitor (or both) within a limited period post-employment. This paper analyzes how their inclusion in employment contracts affects the perceived conditions for subsequent occupational mobility. Employing a forced-choice conjoint experiment on labor market entrants in the Philippines, we construct hypothetical jobseeker profiles with randomly assigned noncompete, training repayment, and nonsolicitation clauses and subsequently ask which jobseeker is more likely to apply to each of the four mobility pathways---vertical-within, lateral-within, vertical-across, and lateral-across job postings. Results suggest that: (i) noncompete clauses prevent the conditions for within-industry occupational mobility and facilitate expected applications in across-industry postings; (ii) training repayment and nonsolicitation clauses have targeted consequences depending on their scope; and (iii) these preventive conditions hold regardless of whether the restrictive covenants are worded narrowly or broadly and whether they are enforced loosely or strictly. Broadly, our results highlight how firms' imposition of restrictive covenants in employment contracts _per se_ has binding repercussions on the perceived conditions for occupational mobility.2. Outside Options and Female Labor Force Participation (with S. Menon and A. Tagat)