Ongoing Research
Working Papers
1. Future Caregiving Responsibilities, Employment Uncertainties, and Expected Childbearing Behavior: Survey Experimental Evidence from Germany (with Michaela Kreyenfeld, Enrique Alonso Perez, Paul Gellert, Jan Paul Heisig, and Julie O’Sullivan)
revise and resubmit
Brief Abstract
In societies experiencing declining birth rates, understanding factors that influence childbearing decisions is critical. We employ a factorial survey experiment to investigate how future narratives of old age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties shape the expected childbearing behavior of a fictitious couple described in a vignette. Respondents from the nationally representative German Socio-Economic Panel Innovation Sample (SOEP-IS) (n=1,750) were randomly assigned five vignettes, each describing a hypothetical and future-oriented narrative with varying levels of old-age caregiving responsibilities and employment uncertainties. After each vignette, respondents rated their expectations about the couple’s childbearing behavior within the next three years using an 11-point Likert scale. Results show that high old age caregiving responsibilities and high employment uncertainties reduce expected childbearing behavior by 2.8 and 1.9 points respectively, compared to when both factors are absent. Taking respondent characteristics into account, further analyses reveal that while female respondents evaluate the importance of having low or no old age caregiving responsibilities than males do, neither objective nor subjective measures of respondents’ employment markers moderated the effect of future employment uncertainties. We discuss the implications of our results in highlighting the conditions that are regarded as more or less favorable for childbearing and, more broadly, how both future-oriented old-age caregiving duties and employment uncertainties alter expectations about family formation.2. Precarity, Class, and Parental Coresidence: Evidence Amidst the UK Cost-of-Living Crisis (with Ann Berrington)
under review
Brief Abstract
The cost-of-living crisis in the UK is likely to have amplified the increasing rates of parental coresidence among young adults. Amidst this period, we examine how underexplored forms of employment precarity (e.g., underemployment and temporary and agency work) are associated with parental coresidence. Refining the feathered nest/gilded cage hypotheses to incorporate employment precarity, we further analyze how parental social class moderates this relationship across the transition to adulthood phase, driven by both protective and propellant motives of parents. Estimating logistic regression models using the 2021-23 waves of the UK Labour Force Survey, we demonstrate the association between precarity and coresidence, and probe heterogeneities by sex, age, and parental social class. Three results are worth noting. First, apart from unemployment, states of labor underutilization (underemployment) and impermanence (temporary and agency work) are associated with a higher probability of parental coresidence relative to stable employment. Second, parental class matters—the positive precarity-coresidence association is most pronounced among service-class parents. Finally, our results support a refined feathered nest/gilded cage hypothesis whereby (higher) parental resources facilitate coresidence at earlier phases of adulthood transitions, especially for unemployed and precariously employed adult children, but this moderating role tapers off with age.3. Merry Now, Marry Later? Initial Employment Conditions and Marital Intentions (with M. Vital)
under review
Brief Abstract
Young adults typically navigate initial transitions into the labor market along with family formation intentions and decisions. A thick strand of literature, mostly based on Western contexts, demonstrates how employment instability is associated with marital behavior (intentions and actual transitions). The Philippines, as the only country in the world without any legal provision for divorce, is an interesting case in analyzing both the institution of and the preferences for marriage. Following the Oppenheimerian hypothesis that employment stability partly explains (earlier) marriage timing, especially among career-oriented young adults, we analyze: what is the relationship between precarious initial conditions and marital intentions among this highly educated subgroup? We estimate logistic regression models using data from a nationally representative college graduate tracer survey in the Philippines. Our analysis highlights three findings. (1) An overwhelming majority intend to get married (>90\%), regardless of employment status. (2) Precarious labor market states are not associated with marital intentions except for economically inactive females. (3) Precarity matters for the expressed timing of marriage---compared to their stably employed counterparts, marriage-oriented young adults on fixed-term contracts, unemployment, or economic inactivity express a slightly later ideal period to marry. These descriptive findings speak to the idea that highly educated young adults in ``merry'' employment conditions intend to marry sooner rather than later.Works in Progress
Research Area 1. Workers’ Demographic Responses to Employment Uncertainty
1. Employment Uncertainty and Fertility—A Global Re-Appraisal (with M. Kreyenfeld and J. Goldstein)
2. Employment Conditions, Trajectories, and Parenthood Transitions (with A. Berrington)
3. Future Uncertainty and Fertility: Experimental Evidence from Germany and Italy (with M. Kreyenfeld, D. Vignoli, et al.)
Research Area 2. Workers’ Mobilization Responses to Insufficiency and Discontent
1.Too Little, Too Weak? Parental Leave Policies and Workers’ Bargaining Response
ongoing
Brief Abstract
When statutory work and family entitlements are deemed insufficient, how do workers respond and compensate? Looking at some advanced economies points us to an idea--unionization and collective bargaining (CB) are ways to attain better conditions and higher benefit entitlements than what is statutorily guaranteed. However, the universality of this ``success story'' has not been tested nor established, particularly in contexts where unions play a less salient role and parental leave laws are perceived as weakly enforced, as is the case in many developing countries. In this paper, we construct a novel dataset of all private sector collective bargaining agreements (CBAs) in the Philippines from 2016-2021 to: (i) descriptively show the prevalence of paid parental leaves (PPLs) in CBAs and (ii) analyze the causal effect of a 2019 maternity leave reform, which increased benefit entitlement from 8 to 15 weeks, on the inclusion of PPLs in CBAs using two quasi-experimental designs. Results show that around 65% of CBAs contain **reinforcing** provisions that merely restate statutory leave entitlements, while only 5% contain **augmenting** provisions that secure more leaves. Meanwhile, we do not find evidence that the 2019 reform crowded out PPL provisions in CBAs. Unpacking potential mechanisms, semi-structured interviews with union leaders lend support to a bounded augmentation hypothesis such that where compliance and enforcement of family policy laws are perceived as weak, redundancy is as much of an objective as augmentation is in collective bargaining.2. Local Labor Market Concentration and Workers’ Representation (with E. Jopson)
Research Area 3. Workers’ Belief Responses to Firms’ Exercise of Power
1. Chains that Bind: On Restrictive Covenants and the Perceived Conditions for Occupational Mobility (with B. Radoc)
Brief Abstract
Restrictive covenants (RCs) in job contracts serve as de facto chains restricting workers’ current and future mobility by preventing them from either prematurely exiting the firm or working for its competitor (or both) within a limited period post-employment. This paper analyzes how their inclusion in employment contracts affects the perceived conditions for subsequent occupational mobility. Employing a forced-choice conjoint experiment on labor market entrants in the Philippines, we construct hypothetical jobseeker profiles with randomly assigned noncompete, training repayment, and nonsolicitation clauses and subsequently ask which jobseeker is more likely to apply to each of the four mobility pathways---vertical-within, lateral-within, vertical-across, and lateral-across job postings. Results suggest that: (i) noncompete clauses prevent the conditions for within-industry occupational mobility and facilitate expected applications in across-industry postings; (ii) training repayment and nonsolicitation clauses have targeted consequences depending on their scope; and (iii) these preventive conditions hold regardless of whether the restrictive covenants are worded narrowly or broadly and whether they are enforced loosely or strictly. Broadly, our results highlight how firms' imposition of restrictive covenants in employment contracts _per se_ has binding repercussions on the perceived conditions for occupational mobility.2. Outside Options and Female Labor Force Participation (with S. Menon)